GIC returns steady amid global uncertainty

Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC recorded a dip in real returns in its latest review as it expects the global economic and geopolitical outlook to be more uncertain.

GIC's 20-year annualised real rate of return - its most important benchmark - was 3.7 per cent for the year ended March 31, down from the previous year's 4 per cent, it noted in its latest annual review.

ABOVE INFLATION RATE

This means GIC enhanced its portfolio by an average return of 3.7 per cent a year, over and above the global inflation rate between April 1997 and March this year.

The decline in its latest 20-year annualised real rate of return was due to the cyclical effect - to years being added and dropped as the 20-year window moves.

The 20-year time frame is used as GIC's mandate to preserve the purchasing power of Singapore's foreign reserves.

"GIC's mandate is to achieve good long-term returns over global inflation. The primary metric for evaluating GIC's investment performance is the rolling 20-year real rate of return. The goal is expressed in real terms because GIC must, at a minimum, beat global inflation and preserve the international purchasing power of the reserves placed under its management," GIC said.

While the latest result shows GIC has managed to achieve steady returns, the investment environment has also become more challenging in recent years, which means GIC is having to "work a lot harder to find assets with good long-term potential at reasonable prices", said chief executive Lim Chow Kiat.

A key concern is rising uncertainty co-existing with low volatility.

Brexit, the United States presidential election and a rise in the scourge of terrorism have all contributed to heightened uncertainty in geopolitics and the outlook for the world economy.

Yet financial markets have remained calm and continue to perform well.

At the same time, asset values have been driven up by investors hunting for yield - making high returns harder to come by.

Mr Lim noted that returns are expected to remain low over the next decade and GIC has taken a relatively cautious portfolio stance in view of the uncertain outlook.

"We are prepared for a period of protracted uncertainty and low returns," he said, adding that GIC has sought to keep its portfolio robust by diversifying across regions, asset classes and risk levels.

CAUTIOUS

"As a long-term value investor, we remain cautious and recognise that to generate good real returns over time, we have to be prepared for periods of underperformance relative to the market indices, some even for a stretch of several years."

Mr Lim said that GIC has its eye on assets with strong long-term prospects, including infrastructure, student housing as well as technology-related investments.

GIC was one of the first institutional investors to move into the student housing market and has since become a major player.

In March, a joint venture entity formed by GIC, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and US real estate operator The Scion Group acquired three US student housing portfolios for about US$1.6 billion (S$2.2 billion).

GIC is also deploying more capital towards private equity investments, Mr Lim said.

Its long-term approach means less liquid asset classes such as private equity and real estate can offer better returns.

Maybank Kim Eng economist Chua Hak Bin said GIC is facing a tough investing environment amid policy uncertainty, high stock market valuations and low bond yields.

It is also facing more competition from other sovereign wealth funds that are also hunting for returns.

"This means GIC has to make sure to remain disciplined and avoid overpaying for assets," he added.

The Sovereign Wealth Centre puts GIC's assets under management at about US$353.6 billion.