N Korea watchers greet Kim move with scepticism
WASHINGTON: Pyongyang's announcement it will halt nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile launches has left experts puzzling over Kim Jong Un's true intentions - and the extent to which US President Donald Trump deserves credit.
The North Korean leader's surprising move Saturday marks another milestone ahead of his upcoming talks with Mr Trump, who less than a year ago was threatening "fire and fury like the world has never seen" after Kim threatened to strike the US island territory of Guam.
Many North Korea experts greeted Kim's announcement with quick scepticism, noting he signalled no intention of actually disarming, and wondering what concessions the enigmatic leader would now expect from the US.
"All of the steps Kim has announced are completely reversible and amount to only words and empty promises - and North Korea is not exactly known to keep its word," said Mr Harry Kazianis, director of defence studies at the Center for the National Interest, a conservative think tank in Washington.
North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test since September and its last ballistic missile launch was in November, but Mr Kazianis cautioned Kim could quickly ramp up again if he does not get what he wants from a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae In, or at subsequent talks with Mr Trump.
"The international community, therefore, should be hopeful - but not stupid," Mr Kazianis told AFP.
Several other analysts poured cold water on Pyongyang's statement, saying that while it offered a pause on testing, it recommits North Korea to being a nuclear power, instead of moving it toward denuclearisation.
And observers are dubious about trusting North Korean pledges, after decades of broken promises from the hermit regime surrounding its nuclear programme.
But Mr Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University who has studied North Korea for decades, expressed frustration with some of the sceptical reaction to Kim's latest move.
He said it is clear that Kim is now intent on pivoting from his nuclear programme to modernising North Korea's economy, and Saturday's statement underscores that.
"I don't know what it will take for people to see this is serious," Mr Wit told AFP.
"These are steps that no one was expecting."
Indeed, it was only in September that Kim was calling "mentally deranged" Trump a "dotard," after the American president labelled the North Korean leader "Rocket Man" on a "suicide mission".
The name-calling came after Mr Trump as a candidate had said he would be open to meeting Kim, later terming him a "smart cookie".
Despite Mr Trump's zig-zagging rhetoric on Kim, Mr Kazianis credited him for his pressure campaign, which has included increasingly tough sanctions backed by the UN Security Council and others.
Without Mr Trump's action, "Kim would most likely have already started his normal missile testing several weeks ago, and likely tested another intercontinental ballistic missile," Mr Kazianis said. "This is a significant, but very small, victory for Team Trump." - AFP
Get The New Paper on your phone with the free TNP app. Download from the Apple App Store or Google Play Store now
