Kopitime: Baby shortage spells trouble for Singapore

Singapore achieved First World nation status in the 1980s, based on per capita GDP. We are now ranked fifth highest globally.

However, like most developed nations, our birth rate declines as our standard of living rises. Our total fertility rate is among the world's lowest.

In Asia, South Korea has the lowest at 0.9. Hong Kong and Singapore stands at 1.1. This is far below the replacement rate of 2.1.

We had about 30,429 births in 2022, and this number is expected to fall in the coming years. We are producing less than half the babies needed for long-term population replacement.

Due to insufficient births over the past five decades, we've had to rely on increasing numbers of foreigners to drive our economy.

Of our 6 million population, 61 per cent are citizens. The rest are mainly permanent residents, work-permit holders, and students.

Without foreign workers, our economy would eventually collapse.

But allowing large numbers of foreigners in isn't ideal either, as it can lead to undesirable consequences.

One outcome is that local-born citizens might slowly be outnumbered by foreign-born new citizens and PRs.

Many countries with large foreign populations face serious racial unrest - for example, France, the UK and the US.

Reversing the trend of declining births is challenging, even with increased government incentives. Simultaneously, we must strengthen efforts to promote social integration.

Another undesirable effect of low birth rates is a rising dependency ratio (the ratio of non-working population to working adults).

With a rapidly ageing population, the financial burden on our working population will increase. They will have to pay more taxes.

Considering these factors, economic growth may slow in the future, making it harder to improve our standard of living.

Albert Ng Ya Ken