GE2025: New battlegrounds, higher uncertainty

Singapore's next General Election (GE) is shaping up to be one that will be fought on mostly new battlegrounds, given the widespread changes to the country's electoral boundaries.

Five new Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs) and six new Single Member Constituencies (SMCs) will feature in GE2025, representing some of the largest shake-ups to electoral boundaries in recent years.

Out of the 18 GRCs, only five remain unchanged. Likewise for four out of 15 SMCs. In other words, a sizable number of voters will find themselves in a different constituency this time.

Opposition parties are understandably thrown off or even disappointed, going by their reactions so far. This is especially so for those that have been focusing their efforts on particular wards over the past few years - only to now see the constituency split up or absorbed into a larger one. For example, such is the case for Bukit Batok SMC, where Singapore Democratic Party veteran Chee Soon Juan had contested twice.

Perhaps it is little wonder then that even political observers are pointing out that some of the changes may feel "politically driven", even if they are prompted by population shifts over the years, with the emergence of new large estates like Tengah and Bidadari.

With GE2025 likely months - or even weeks - away, the runway for opposition parties to garner support in their chosen wards is, no doubt, short.

At the time, the Workers' Party claimed the newly established Sengkang GRC despite fielding a team of fresh faces against familiar figures from the ruling People's Action Party (PAP).

For GE2025, the creation of several new SMCs would likewise test the resilience of several one-term Members of Parliament, some of whom had fought their first battle as part of a GRC team in 2020. This includes the SMCs of Jalan Kayu, Jurong Central, Queenstown and Sembawang West.

In the event that the PAP changes its line-up for these wards, whoever is fielded there would have little time to waste in establishing rapport with voters.

All these factors could raise the unpredictability factor in GE2025, and that is not taking into account how importantly - or unimportantly - voters may judge the several high-profile incidents that have occurred in recent years: lying in Parliament, resignations arising from extramarital affairs from both the PAP and WP, as well as the conviction of a former minister.

More than electoral boundaries, perhaps more attention should be paid to the fact that the number of elected seats will be increased to 97, from 93.

This raises the bar for both the ruling and opposition parties, since it means having to field more candidates, when the recruitment of strong candidates is already famously difficult - for both sides. The opposition's goal to "break the supermajority" in Parliament - an aim that was much bandied around in GE2020 - is now even farther off.