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Stable leadership transition vital for Singapore: K. Shanmugam

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PAP's approach to selecting future leaders helps prevent dissent in government, says Shanmugam

A stable transition of political leadership is vital, especially for small countries like Singapore where governance has a greater impact, said Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugam.

He made the point yesterday to about 200 people at an event on corporate governance, organised by the Securities Investors Association Singapore.

Mr Shanmugam set out the ruling People's Action Party's (PAP) longstanding approach to selecting future leaders.

The PAP's approach is to bring in potential leaders early - preferably in their 30s or early 40s - and try them out in different ministerial portfolios and party roles, he said. The current crop of fourth generation leaders have to choose who among them is primus inter pares - first among equals.

Governance is one reason for this approach, Mr Shanmugam said. Another is the assumption that people in Singapore are similar to people elsewhere, which means they can be driven by ambition to want the top job for themselves.

"How do we try and reduce that (likelihood) and make them work as a team?" he said.

"You bring in four, five, six people who form the core. You give them different portfolios, you give them different party assignments, then you put them together and say, 'You go and choose.' If they have chosen, then it's less likely, not impossible, but less likely that they will go against whoever is in power."

He noted that people tend to think that founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew chose Mr Goh Chok Tong and Mr Lee Hsien Loong to be prime ministers and that the current leader will pick the next prime minister.

But selecting a leader this way could lead to leadership challenges, which happens abroad.

Mr Shanmugam cited Australia, which has seen six prime ministers in the past 10 years.

In the Singapore system, there are two ways of taking over power, and these are similar to some countries, he noted.

The first is via the PAP's internal elections to elect a central executive committee (CEC).

He noted that in Singapore, each minister typically anchors a GRC with several MPs.

"The cadre members are usually based on branches so... if you don't like the prime minister, within Cabinet if you can get about seven to eight ministers on your side, it's a fair bet that they will be able to swing their current cadre members from their branches and their GRCs," Mr Shanmugam said.

"So then you form a team either quietly, as happened in the early 60s, or openly, and then you stand for elections at the CEC. And if you get the majority, and then you tell the prime minister you are no longer secretary-general of the party, please step down. That's how a coup takes place."

The second way, he said, is that under the Constitution, the person who commands the confidence of the majority of MPs becomes prime minister.

"Why am I telling you all these things? To say that these things are real, they are not impossible, they can happen, particularly when you have a dominant prime minister like the current prime minister stepping down," he cautioned.

This is why the process of choosing Singapore's next leader is still ongoing, Mr Shanmugam said, to ensure the team comes together and works through "all the rough edges" before moving ahead.

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