Saudi Prince stumbles over Khashoggi disappearance

Saudi Arabia, and especially its young crown prince, appear to have vastly misjudged the reaction to the disappearance of Mr Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist who opposed the new heir's unchecked efforts to reshape the kingdom and the Middle East region with his own vision.

The 33-year-old Mohammed bin Salman has got away with quite a lot since his elevation just 16 months ago to the role of heir-apparent to the throne.

While praised as the reformist behind measures like allowing women to drive, he detained dozens of members of the royal family and top business leaders at the Ritz-Carlton until they agreed to pay financial settlements for unspecified "violations".

He has arrested and imprisoned scores of human rights and women's rights activists and pursued a war in neighbouring Yemen where routine flouting of human rights and international battlefield rules have led to the death of at least 10,000 civilians and displaced an estimated two million.

He also blockaded and isolated the neighbouring sultanate of Qatar, and is yet to complete contracts binding him to a commitment to US$110 billion (S$152 billion) in defence purchases from the US.

Now, the kingdom appears to be making an effort to absolve the prince of the action against Mr Khashoggi, though it has long been clear that he has gathered all but absolute power in his hands.

At the same time, Prince Mohammed may have vastly misjudged the power of US President Donald Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Riyadh certainly has never been known for its respect for human rights.

But even Saudi Arabia has not typically operated in such an unrestrained way.

What has changed?

Part of it is a new generation of leaders trying to muscle their way into power.

Still, it may be too early to predict with certainty whether this new leadership will revert to the royals' more trusted old style of slow, evolutionary progress towards goals designed to preserve the status quo.

UNREADY

Prince Mohammed, it would seem, may simply be unready to assume the reins of power.

Most Saudi kings have not acceded to the throne until they were at least well into their 60s.

A senior prince who is on the Allegiance Council, a 28-member group of princes that formally selects the next king, told me on a visit to Riyadh that this body wants to feel that the next ruler had been thoroughly tested through any number of challenges and had met them - acquiring the wisdom and temperament that only age can bring.

Prince Mohammed, it is beginning to appear, has acquired little or none of this wisdom.

The problem goes far more deeply than him and the process by which he succeeded to power.

While Prince Mohammed is King Salman's favourite, his position will not be secure until this group endorses him.

Now, however, with the Prince having skipped much of a generation - passing over the vast bulk of the grandchildren of King ibn Saud - the Khashoggi affair could prove to be quite an existential threat to his plan to succeed to the Saudi monarchy and break the stranglehold on power so long held by his elders.

Indeed, this weekend, it was his father, the King, who called Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, seeking a solution.

The central question is whether Saudi Arabia might be brought back into line, or whether it is headed for a true pariah-state status?

Already, the Prince has lost some key allies or supporters.

His vaunted Davos in the Desert conference this month was supposed to play a key role in launching his Vision 2030 development plan.

But in the days since the disappearance of Mr Khashoggi and Saudi foot-dragging, the withdrawal of major sponsors and leading executives have left the entire enterprise in limbo.

Whether Prince Mohammed is the individual able to take up the challenge of reforming Saudi Arabia and leading it is becoming increasingly questionable. - REUTERS

The writer is a former foreign correspondent for the New York Times and CBS News.