Covid-19 likely to develop into seasonal disease, says UN
GENEVA: Covid-19 appears likely to develop into a seasonal disease, the United Nations said yesterday, cautioning though against relaxing curbs based on meteorological factors.
More than a year after the coronavirus first surfaced in China, a number of mysteries still surround the disease that has killed nearly 2.7 million.
In its first report, an expert team tasked with trying to shed light on one of those mysteries by examining potential meteorological and air quality influences found some indications that the disease would develop into a seasonal menace.
The 16-member team set up by the UN World Meteorological Organisation said respiratory viral infections are often seasonal, "in particular the autumn-winter peak for influenza and cold-causing coronaviruses in temperate climates".
"This has fuelled expectations that, if it persists for many years, Covid-19 will prove to be a strongly seasonal disease," it said.
Modelling studies anticipate that transmission of Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, "may become seasonal over time".
But Covid-19 transmission dynamics so far appear to have been influenced mainly by government interventions such as mask mandates and travel restrictions, rather than the weather. The team therefore insisted that weather and climate conditions alone should for now not be the trigger for loosening curbs.
"At this stage, evidence does not support the use of meteorological and air quality factors as a basis for governments to relax interventions aimed at reducing transmission," said team co-chair Ben Zaitchik of the earth and planetary sciences department at the John Hopkins University.
He pointed out that during the first year of the pandemic, infections in some places rose in warm seasons, "and there is no evidence this couldn't happen again in the coming year".
The experts, who focused on outdoor meteorology and air quality, said lab studies provided evidence that the virus survives longer in cold, dry weather and when there is low ultraviolet radiation.
But it remained unclear whether meteorological influences "have a meaningful influence on transmission rates under real-world conditions". - AFP
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