Old foes, millennials stand in way of Thai junta's polls victory
Those voting for the first time could be key in country wearied by junta rule
CHAIYAPHUM, THAILAND: Thailand holds it first election in eight years on Sunday under rules concocted by a junta to keep itself in power, but with the appeal of both old foes and the new millennial vote posing an unpredictable challenge.
The junta seized power in 2014, vowing to rescue the country from a treadmill of coups, short-lived civilian governments, and protests. But the kingdom goes to the polls on March 24 as divided as ever.
The arch-royalist army has no intention of leaving politics and has scripted a constitution that gifts it a foothold in power for a generation.
Standing in its way are supporters of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who has dominated Thai politics since his first election win in 2001.
He was toppled by an earlier coup in 2006, but his affiliated Pheu Thai party taps a deep seam of loyalty from the poor but populous rural north and north-east.
Thousands of rice farmers gathered in a school yard earlier this week for a Pheu Thai rally in rural Chaiyaphum, applauding promises of better times ahead under an elected government and whistling disapproval at every mention of the junta.
Parties allied with Mr Thaksin hope to win a comfortable majority of the 500 elected seats up for grabs across a country wearied by junta rule.
But Sunday's vote is the first under new rules that mean winning the popular vote does not automatically translate into leading a government, or choosing the next prime minister.
Instead, 250 junta-appointed senators are poised to play a key role in shaping the next administration.
With the senate onside, the junta-linked party needs just 126 elected seats to secure a parliamentary majority - setting up a potential collision over a denied mandate.
"Forming a government and governing will be different," warns Assoc Prof Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "We will probably see some kind of deadlock... that will lead to some kind of constitutional crisis."
With days to go, election fever has gripped much of a country starved for nearly five years of political expression.
Advance voting last Sunday saw a near 90 per cent turnout, while acerbic commentary, memes and satirical swipes are pinballing across social media.
More than seven million millennials are eligible to vote for the first time, most unencumbered by old political loyalties - injecting uncertainty into the outcome.
Sunday's poll will essentially be a "vote on the military" said Thailand expert and historian Chris Baker. With much of the country viscerally opposed either to the junta or to Mr Thaksin, the ballot will be "more emotional than rational," he added. - AFP
Get The New Paper on your phone with the free TNP app. Download from the Apple App Store or Google Play Store now