You can't go against a team parading Messi
I don't know about you, but I like backing teams that are written off.
I somehow feel that the football gods are not always on the side of favourites like Germany, especially when they are coming off an incredulous, 7-1 demolition job of hosts Brazil.
But in case you think I make my picks just on "gut feel", let me say something in my defence: Lionel Messi.
Sure, Argentina did their best to put the world to sleep in the semi-finals, with Messi as quiet as a mouse.
But they got through, didn't they?
In case you have forgotten, they have beaten Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria, Switzerland, Belgium and Holland to get to the final, although they needed penalties to get rid of the stubborn Dutch.
And they would not have gotten so far without Messi's four goals in the group matches, plus his critical assist to Angel di Maria to knock Switzerland out in the Round of 16.
Plus, when I bet against a team, I tend to avoid going against anyone who boasts a four-time World Footballer of the Year in their ranks.
Call me silly, but I fear that one Messi free-kick or set-piece could change the entire complexion of the game.
Someone argued with me that Messi did nothing in the semi-final, that he might as well have not been on the pitch.
I beg to differ.
Messi being on the pitch meant that Wesley Sneijder and Nigel de Jong had to perform man-marking duties for nearly most of the match.
And when you have a man like Sneijder more concerned about defence than attack, you take considerable pressure off the rest of the Argentine team.
Messi makes a difference, even if he is not the one supplying the killer pass or scoring the vital goal.
Germany know that, and will definitely take the Little Flea into the equation when coming up with their own game plan.
I doubt if Germany coach Joachim Loew will give Sami Khedira and Tony Kroos as much licence to attack Argentina as he did Brazil.Loew knows that Brazil couldn't hurt his German machine as much on the counter attack as Messi can, especially if the Argentine captain has willing runners like Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain to pick out.
Still not convinced?
To tell you the truth, even I find it hard to argue that Argentina will win this match on just the football.
But like Glenn Hoddle writes in his column in the London Evening Standard: "Sometimes football defies logic".
Known for his belief in the supernatural, the former England manager said: "I think it's written in the stars that Sunday will be the Lionel Messi Final - and he will win the World Cup for Argentina on his own.
"He is a man on a mission to deliver the World Cup in the same way as Diego Maradona did when I was a player up against him in '86. Then, as now, Argentina were a one-man team, an ordinary line-up with one magician who can turn a game in a blink of an eye.
"Then it was Maradona, now it's Messi."
Now it is Messi. I like that.
Write him off at your own peril.