A third win does not look Elusive for Swann

Here's a form analysis for Thursday’s South Africa (Vaal):

RACE 1 (1,200M)

(10) CHARGE DOWN did well fresh over this trip, With the same prep, the four-year-old gelding could run a big race.

(14) PRIVILEGE was heavily supported on debut but finished last of nine runners. He should be better than that. Watch the money flow.

(4) ORGETORIX found problems last time. But, on his penultimate run, he could get into the action.

(1) FULLIAUTOMATIX, (3) TRUST THE FIRE and (2) BACK TO BASICS are looking for the minor money.

Watch newcomer (11) CLEAVER GREENE.

 

RACE 2 (1,200M)

(11)BENGUELA COVE found no support on debut but finished strongly for second. She can only improve and rates as the one to beat. 

(4) LA BANQUIERE is looking to improve and could challenge. 

(1) RIO SUPREMO ran okay before her eighth, which was only last Saturday. It is left to be seen if she will take her place.

Stablemate (2) STEPINTOSPRING could get into the money. 

(3) BETHANY should enjoy the little extra distance.

 

RACE 3 (1,600M)

(5) ELUSIVE SWANN has made further improvement after being gelded. He could get a well-deserved third victory. 

Stable companion (6) FLINDERS RANGE, who is capable of better, could challenge. 

(14) FOLLOW MY PATH is threatening for his third victory, which is not beyond him.

(1) GLOBAL PLAYER found traffic problems last time and should be thereabouts. 

(7) GROOMEDTOWIN could improve with the return to the turf.

 

RACE 4 ( 1,500M)

(4) BANHA BRIDGE is honest and should give his rivals a good run for the money. 

(1) EARL won well last time. With a 4kg claim, he should confirm the form.

(3) BEY SUYAY rarely runs a bad race. He has a say at the finish.

(2) NORDIC REBEL cannot be ignored and could grab them late.

The lightly raced (5) DANCE LESSON needed her last run and could feature. 

 

RACE 5 (1,500M)

(1) WHORLY WHORLY was blowing after his good effort under 65.5kg last time. With a 4kg claimer up, he could breathe easier and make a bold bid.

(2) PRINCE EVLANOFF is in cracking form, but could prefer a touch further nowadays. 

(4) BOLD JAZZ, (5) STORMY WINTER, (9) ROCK OF AFRICA and (10) ROCK THE GLOBE ran indifferent races in heavy going last time. They can be expected to show vast improvement. 

RACE 6 ( 1,200M)

This could develop into a race between (2) FULL VELOCITY (nine starts for four wins and five placings) and (6) FREED FROM DESIRE (10 start for four wins and four placings), who is receiving 1.5kg. Full Velocity was a good fourth last start. Freed From Desire won three of her last four starts.

It could also prove a great battle for the minor money, but (5) TANZANITE QUEEN gets the nod from (1) LUCY IN THE SKY and (4) MAY QUEEN.

 

RACE 7 (1,200M)

(3) RIGHT CHOICE is in form and is on a hat-trick. But she has to fight for it because (2) WHAT A HONEY looks well above average. What A Honey beat nothing of note in opening her account but did not come out of a strong canter. She has come on heaps. 

(5) MIDNIGHT GEM could hold off (4) STOLEN KISS again and secure third spot.

(7) BIG CITY GIRL and (9) MEET THE CAPTAIN can be included in the quartet.

 

RACE 8 (1,000M)

The seven-year-old (19) SAMOA, a close second early last week, is overdue her third win. Whatever beats her could win it.

(12) MOONSTRIKE looks progressive. The filly has not finished further than fourth in her last four starts. She won her last start on Nov 25.

(1) BETHEL pulled up fatigued when fifth last time. The gelding should step out fitter to have his say.

(6) ABALUS, (10) SUCCESSFUL SECRET and (20) ALLEZ LES BLEU could pop up. They ran well last time.